Forex Focus
EUR/USD
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Historical Details
- % Change
- 1 Wk 0.64%
- 1 Month -0.71%
- 3 Months -1.08%
- 6 Months -0.41%
- 1 Yr 2.70%
52 Week
- High 1.3711
- Low 1.2043
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
- Q2 2013 1.30
- Q3 2013 1.29
- Q4 2013 1.27
- Q1 2014 1.26
Twice daily commentary
24 May 2013 – Chicago: 00:00 London: 06.00; Singapore: 13.00; Melbourne: 15.00
Data overnight was actually better across the board, which is something we haven’t seen in a while. German and French PMIs contracted at a slower pace than expected, although you can hardly say they provided clear optimism. US initial claims were lower than forecast at 340,000, while home sales also came out better.
Fed chatter overnight was highlighted by San Francisco President John Williams, who if you recall caused a big spike in the USD in recent days by suggesting the Fed could look to taper off earlier than expected. It seems he has toned down his view and aligned himself more with the core of the Fed (Ben Bernanke and Mr Dudley), suggesting it should retain the flexibility if the economy weakens again. He also said that if the Fed does cut the current pace, then the board could revert to increasing purchases if the economy suffered. Mix these comments with some dovish narrative from St Louis Fed President James Bullard, who detailed he is not in any rush to taper bond purchases given inflation, and you can see why the USD weakened against the EUR, GBP and AUD.
In European trade we also get reads on German GDP and more importantly the IFO business survey at 18:00 (AEST). EUR/USD has had a nice rally off yesterday’s low, and good numbers today in both these releases could push the pair towards the 1.30 level. On the other side of the coin, we get US durable goods orders and the market is expecting a 1.5% gain here.
Chris Weston, Australia
GBP/USD
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AUD/USD
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USD/JPY
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Notes: Chart data based on IG's prices. Charts supplied by IT Finance. Bloomberg Median Forecasts are produced by Bloomberg by taking the median level from rates forecast by a number of contributors, which consist of leading banks and security firms.
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